A report released by Statistics Botswana on Friday has projected an increse in the population from about 2,024,904 persons in 2011 to about 2,565,855 persons by 2026. Also, the HIV/AIDS scenario projections projected that the number of HIV+ persons in Botswana may increase from about 322,972 persons in 2011 to about 472,944 persons by 2026.
Statistician General Anna Majelantle said the Population Projections for Botswana 2011-2026 Report is another product of a series of reports that are derived from the 2011 Population and Housing Census data. It is one of the main volumes in the 2011 Population and Housing Census series of publications. The report contains the projected counts of the future population. "Unlike in the previous projections, which projected for a 30 year period, the current report projects the population for the next 15 years using the 2011 census data as the base population. These population projections are presented at national, district levels.
A report on locality population projections will be published separately," she said. The main purpose of producing population projections is to provide an estimate of the future population as a common framework for use in planning, policy formulation and decision making in various sectors of the economy, she said. This would assist the planning process in presenting a future outlook of the population. This includes among others; informing the allocation of the resources from the central government to local areas and plan ahead for the provision of services.
Population figures are required for planning in every sector of a population. Outside the census year, census figures do not adequately meet planning needs for future population figures. The purpose of this report is therefore to project the population of Botswana at national, and district level. Populations of urban and rural areas are also projected. To meet the requirement of generating projections by using different variants/scenarios a re-analysis/re-adjustment and estimation of fertility and mortality was carried out on both the 2001 and 2011 Censuses to enable the development of appropriate assumptions for the projections.
Four scenarios of projections were undertaken – High, Medium, Low and HIV/AIDS scenarios – thus embodying different assumptions about levels and trends in fertility and mortality. On the basis of issues raised regarding various fertility and mortality estimates derived from Botswana census data and the re-estimation carried out on the data, it is recommended that the low scenario projections be used for planning. The results from this scenario were almost similar to those from the HIV/AIDS scenario projections. The low scenario projections projected that the population of Botswana may increase from about 2,024,904 persons in 2011 to about 2,565,855 persons by 2026. The HIV/AIDS scenario projections projected that the number of HIV+ persons in Botswana may increase from about 322,972 persons in 2011 to about 472,944 persons by 2026.